OBSERVATION: Climate change, whether natural or manmade, is very likely to result in significant rises in ocean levels that will threaten coastal communities across the world.
SOLUTION: Provide a new non-governmental task force to envision a long-term strategy and proactive measures for the preservation of Hong Kong’s coastal areas and communities.
Ocean levels have been steadily rising since the beginning of the 20th century. Most attribute this to global warming, which is driving thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers. While there is intense debate over projections of sea level rise over the next century, many have indicated ocean levels will rise by at least 0.7 m and perhaps in excess of 2.0 m. While many insist that the reduction of carbon emissions are integral to reign in catastrophic rises in ocean levels, is it already too late?
How will Hong Kong respond to the inevitable impact of rising sea levels on its high-density coastal urban areas? Retreat, accommodate, or protect?
RETREAT:
- Property Loss: If sea levels along Hong Kong’s coastline continue to rise, will low-lying areas eventually become flooded and abandoned, resulting in significant financial loss to property owners?
- Coastal Restrictions: Is a strategic and planned “retreat” envisaged by the Government that might see a future ban of new development along coastal areas and encourage more intense development at higher elevations?
- Migration: Will there be a slow and steady migration out of Hong Kong in search of safer and higher ground?
ACCOMMODATE:
- Transformation: Could the low-lying inhabited area of Hong Kong be transformed to remain livable if ocean levels rise significantly?
- Overwater Living: Could some coastal districts be modified and adapted to serve as new models of over-water living?
- New Canals: Could the foundations of some existing buildings be modified to allow for existing low-lying streets to eventually become canals like Venice?
- Codes: Should new building codes be enacted requiring buildings in vulnerable locations to be built with modified foundations and at higher elevations?
- Infrastructure: Will some roadways and key infrastructure need to be elevated to accommodate higher water levels?
PROTECT:
The most likely option to preserve some of the most high-value property and iconic skyscrapers lining Hong Kong’s coastline might revolve around strategies of protection, which could work hand in hand with concurrent strategies to retreat and to accommodate.
What protective strategies might be considered?
- Locks: Might Victoria Harbour someday be sealed at both ends by a system of locks that regulate water level, while still admitting critical marine traffic?
- Seawalls: Will sections of Hong Kong need to take a page from The Netherlands and require the construction of giant dikes and seawalls to protect low-lying areas?
- Drainage Systems: Could a city-wide system of pump drainage systems be created as in Miami, Florida, USA?
- Natural Systems: Could the establishment of new barrier islands, mangroves and coral reefs surrounding parts of Hong Kong provide protection from increases in flooding and erosion?
- Coastal Protection: Will compensated or involuntary coastal land resumption be enacted to create artificial and natural defenses? Residents in Nova Scotia, Canada have already been faced with this alarming issue.
China Water Risk, among many others have already raised the alarm over the submersion of Hong Kong. Reclaimed areas of Hong Kong Island’s north coast and some of the most populous low-lying neighborhoods in Kowloon have been identified as some of the city’s most vulnerable populated areas. What will happen to these areas in the future?
As one of the most vexxing and costly issues confronting the survival of Hong Kong, urgent policies to protect the territory’s coastal population need to be formulated — which must include representation by individuals, property owners, property developers, the HKSAR Government, as well as the National PRC Government.
While so many people are focused on Hong Kong’s political climate when 2047 rolls around — is anyone thinking of the physical climate and whether the city will be livable?